Guwahati, Jan 27: Health damage linked to emissions from the global plastics system could more than double by 2040 compared with 2016 levels if current production and waste trends continued, according to a study published in The Lancet Planetary Health. The research said greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles and toxic chemicals released across the plastics lifecycle had driven rising risks of global warming, air pollution–related illness, toxicity-linked cancers and other non-communicable diseases.
The study found that the greatest harms came from primary plastics production and the open burning of plastic waste, while warning that global plastic output was unlikely to peak before the end of the century. Researchers said this trajectory would lock in long-term environmental and health pressures in a system already under strain.
Led by scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine with partners in France, the research marked the first global-scale assessment to estimate health impacts from plastics using disability-adjusted life-years. It examined emissions from raw material extraction and polymer production through to waste collection, recycling, dumpsites, open burning and environmental leakage.
The authors reported that, under business-as-usual projections, adverse health effects associated with the global plastics system had more than doubled between 2016 and 2040. They said a major barrier to effective regulation was the lack of transparency over chemical content, with non-disclosure severely limiting lifecycle assessments and weakening the evidence base for policy action.
The modelling framework developed in the study was designed to be updated as new data emerged, enabling governments to compare the health impacts of plastics and alternative materials. The findings pointed to substantial cuts in virgin plastic production as central to reducing harm, alongside assessments that considered how plastics were used across different sectors.
The researchers argued that piecemeal measures would be insufficient and that a globally coordinated approach addressing plastics from production to disposal was essential to protect human health. They said the evidence strengthened the case for tougher controls under the proposed Global Plastics Treaty, particularly on new plastics for non-essential uses, to curb emissions and reduce the growing burden on public health systems worldwide.
