Guwahati, May 29: Northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season even as several other parts of the country are expected to witness below-normal precipitation, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) second long-range forecast released on May 29.
The IMD has projected that India as a whole will receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall between June and September, lower than the 92 per cent forecast issued in April. The weather office said the forecast carries a model error margin of four per cent.
IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that rainfall over the Northeast is expected to remain within 94 to 106 per cent of the LPA, categorising it as normal. In comparison, Central India, Northwest India, South Peninsular India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season.
According to the forecast, rainfall across the country in June is expected to remain below normal at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. However, some parts of Northeast India, Northwest India and the southern peninsula may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the month.
The weather agency also predicted above-normal temperatures across most regions of the country in June, with both maximum and minimum temperatures expected to remain higher than usual in many areas.
The IMD warned that states such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are likely to witness an above-normal number of heatwave days. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu could also see increased heatwave activity.
On global climate conditions, the IMD said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually moving towards El Niño. The probability of El Niño developing is expected to rise to 82 per cent in June and cross 90 per cent during July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are, however, expected to continue through the monsoon season.
Despite concerns regarding seasonal rainfall distribution, the country recorded four per cent above-normal rainfall in May, while cumulative rainfall till May 27 remained one per cent above normal.
The southwest monsoon had reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of schedule, and has since advanced into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the onset of the monsoon over Kerala and the northeastern states within the next week.
The weather office further stated that severe heatwave conditions currently affecting Northwest India are likely to ease in the coming days due to western disturbances, easterly winds and thunderstorm activity across the region.
