Guwahati, May 5: The 2023 delimitation exercise has played a decisive role in reshaping Assam’s political landscape, significantly contributing to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s sweeping victory in the 2026 Assembly elections, where it secured a record 102 seats in the 126-member House.
The redrawing of constituency boundaries altered electoral dynamics across the state, particularly by restructuring several Muslim-majority constituencies and converting some into reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. This shift reduced the electoral influence of minority vote banks, which had previously been decisive in nearly 35 constituencies, bringing their impact down to fewer than 25 seats.
Election data indicates that the opposition’s limited success was largely confined to areas unaffected by delimitation. Of the 24 seats won by opposition parties, the Congress secured 19, while the All India United Democratic Front and Raijor Dal won two seats each. A majority of these victories were recorded in constituencies with concentrated minority populations, reflecting a narrower geographical base of support.
While the total number of Assembly seats remained unchanged at 126, the delimitation increased the number of Scheduled Tribe seats from 16 to 19 and Scheduled Caste seats from eight to nine. Constituencies such as Barpeta and Goalpara West, which previously had significant Bengali-speaking Muslim populations, were converted into reserved seats and were subsequently won by the NDA.
The Bodoland region witnessed a particularly notable shift, with reserved seats increasing from 11 to 15. The NDA’s ally, the Bodoland People’s Front, secured 10 of these seats, strengthening the alliance’s hold over tribal areas.
The impact of the changes was also evident in the performance of opposition parties. The AIUDF, which had won 16 seats in the previous election, was reduced to just two, while the Congress struggled to expand beyond its traditional pockets. Despite attempts by the NDA to make inroads into minority-dominated constituencies, including fielding candidates through the Asom Gana Parishad, it did not secure victories in those areas. The BJP itself did not field Muslim candidates, maintaining its established electoral strategy.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had earlier suggested that delimitation would create favourable political conditions for the BJP. The 2026 Assembly polls marked the first election conducted after the 2023 exercise, which was based on the 2011 Census.
In the final tally, the BJP won 82 seats, while its allies, the Bodoland People’s Front and the Asom Gana Parishad, secured 10 seats each. The Congress finished with 19 seats, while the Raijor Dal and the All India United Democratic Front won two seats apiece, and the Trinamool Congress secured one.
Political observers note that the new electoral configuration has significantly strengthened the NDA’s position, and unless opposition parties recalibrate their strategies and broaden their social coalition, the alliance’s dominance in Assam is likely to continue in the near term.
